The Status of the Major Nuclear-Weapon States' Ballistic Missile Forces

China

China continues gradual introduction of a new generation of solid-fuel ballistic missiles, including the DF-31, China's first fully modern ICBM. Initially deployed in 1999, approximately eight were in service as of mid-2004.1 Early versions reportedly have a range of 8,000 kilometers with a single warhead, but extended range versions with multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles have been reported as well. Another ICBM, the DF-41, has been reported in development since the mid-1980s. This weapon is said to be much larger, but details remain obscure. Whether these systems will complement or replace the country's inventory of roughly 20-24 deployed DF-5 liquid-fueled ICBMs remains unclear. Production of short-range systems continues at a much faster pace, with about 50-70 additional missiles reportedly deployed opposite Taiwan annually, about 700 in all so far.2

France

France abandoned its land-based ballistic missiles in the 1990s but has just ordered final development and production of the I M51, a new generation of sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). With a range of more than 6,000 kilometers, these reportedly will be able to reach China from normal patrols.3 Deployment is scheduled to begin in 2010 and production is expected to total 50 missiles.4 Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin justified the project as "a basic component of France's independence."5

Russia

Russia is simultaneously cutting and modernizing its ICBM and SLBM forces. A recent report notes that the land-based ICBM force is expected to decline from 496 missiles today to about 313 by 2010.6 Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has publicly praised strategic modernization efforts.7 The service lives of older, liquid-fueled SS-18 and SS-19 ICBMs are being extended for an additional 10-20 years of operation.8 Simultaneously, development is being completed on a new generation of solid-fuel systems: a road-mobile version of the Topol-M solid-fueled ICBM, scheduled for deployment in 2006, and the Bulava-30 solid-fuel SLBM.9 Development of a new short-range ballistic missile, the 280-kilometer-range Iskander, also has been completed.

The United Kingdom

The United Kingdom stands out for its apparent contentment with a force of 58 Trident-2 SLBMs, acquired in the 1980s and 1990s to arm its four Vanguard-class submarines.10 A decision on whether to replace the Trident missiles and Vanguard submarines is likely in 2007."

The United States

The United States began a 15-year service-life extension program for the 500 Minuteman-3 ICBMs in 1997. No new Minuteman ICBMs have been built since 1979, but modernization includes new motors, guidance, and ground-support systems.12 There are further plans to improve the range and accuracy of the existing fleet under the "Minuteman-3 Elite" program.13 The Navy's D5 Trident-2 SLBM remains in lowrate production, with orders for six to 12 annually. There has been official discussion about fielding a new land-based ICBM, possibly beginning in 2018, but there are no firm plans.14 Current debates focus more on the possibility of adapting long-range ballistic missiles to conventional missions.15 The last of the 50 MX Peacekeepers will be deactivated this September.16